MSNBC's Chuck Todd Sees Boyda Victory

A little something on this beautiful Sunday:

Kansas: Obama’s ties to this state through his mother’s roots haven’t translated to a pop in his numbers. The reliable Republican nature of the state is remaining just that, reliable. But it's not like the GOP is doing big things in Kansas, either. Nancy Boyda, a Democrat from the 2nd District, who some thought would be an accidental victor in '06, looks poised to win re-election, which is the most surprising development in state politics.

Only hours left, friends, and we'll see how this all shakes out.

Of Bedknobs and Balloting: Republicans See Numbers Fall in Key Counties

Depending on which Kansas Republican you want to listen to, Kansas is either seeing record voting turnout numbers- upwards of 78% by election day with almost 30% of registered voters casting advance ballots- because of the "Obama Effect" or because 78-year-old Republican Senator Pat Roberts has captivated the minds of Kansans young and old alike, driving them en masse to register to vote and stand in long lines at the polls.

You know, it's awfully hard to snicker in writing.

So, here are your perspectives:

Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh on Friday predicted a record voter turnout in Kansas -- caused in part by what he called the “Obama Effect.”

The candidacy of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has produced a surge in voter registration, especially among 18- to 30-year-olds, said Thornburgh, who is a Republican.

“We’re seeing that not only in the state of Kansas but we’re seeing that around the country as well,” he said.

Or, if you'd rather, Christian Morgan's partisan delusion:

“Despite what you might have heard from Ron Thornburgh’s press conference today crediting the ‘Obama Effect’ for increased voter interest in Kansas, below is the real story from Senator (Pat) Roberts’ campaign about the great progress we have made in Republican voter registration and turnout efforts this year,” the release from Kansas Republican Party executive director Christian Morgan said.

We're just going to ignore the crazy "Pat Roberts is the reason people are flooding to the polls" blather and instead focus on the second half of the quote- the part about "the great progress we have made in Republican voter registration" this year.

Christian, dearheart, sometimes your lies are just silly unverifiable prattle, but today you've it upon something that can be proven untrue...with numbers and charts and graphs, even!

According to data compiled by Washburn Univeristy political science professor Bob Beatty, the Kansas Republicans Party doesn't come into the 2008 election with particularly good news on the new voter registration front:

Since 2006, Shawnee County [which accounts for 30% of the district's voters- BB] has added 6,641 voters, a 6.5 percent increase. Of those new registrants, 3,369 are Democrats compared to 2,999 unaffiliated and 223 Republican.

Douglas County, home to 20 percent of district voters, has gained 6,157 registered voters since '06. An astounding 4,944 of the registrants are Democrats, while 1,611 are unaffiliated. Republican numbers actually decreased by 400 registrants.

In Crawford County, Republican registrants went down by 830 registrants, or 10 percent. Democrats added 367, a 4 percent increase, and unaffiliated increased by 550, or 8 percent. [Additionally, Republicans have also lost about 500 voters in Riley County, compared to the Democrats picking up another 1,000 or so. Oh, also, emphasis ours.]

While Republicans certainly still outnumber Democrats in most of the state of Kansas, we wish Christian would share whatever it is he's been smoking if he really does believe Kansas Republicans have done a good job registering new voter.

When the arrow is pointing down, Christian, it's always always a bad sign.

Jenkins should be pleased, of course, to see increase in Republican registrations in a couple of counties that Jim Ryun did very, very well in 2 years ago:

Of 624 new registrants in Pottawatomie County, 464 registered as Republicans but only 91 as Democrats and 87 unaffiliated. In Miami County, there are 676 newly registered Republicans compared to 499 Democrats. Another 739 are unaffiliated.

Good news, yes, but Boyda's advantage in counties that make up 41% of the electorate probably negates Lynn's happy feelings.

What's the final word, Dr. Beatty?

Analyses of several key counties — minus Geary, which only has a handful of voters in the 2nd — shows momentum in the 2nd district with new registered voters is not with the Republicans.

So, Christian, you said something about Republicans doing a good job registering new voters?

NRCC Does TV Ripping Boyda, Jenkins Up with New ad

Lots of waves on the airwaves today with two new ads ripping Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.

The first, from the NRCC isn't anything new or interesting, just more of the same "largest tax increase in history" nonsense that Boyda has long since dealt with. We don't have a buy size yet, but it's in all the media markets that cover the district, and buying Kansas City TV is awfully expensive.

The other ad, Lynn's new one, is called "Team" and talks about what we'll get from the "team" that is Barack Obama and Nancy Boyda if they're both in Washington.

This tactic isn't new- tying independent local Democrats to national Democrats- though when the Republicans tried it in special elections in the spring and summer in Louisiana and Mississippi it didn't work at all. Jenkins does take a slightly new path, though, by misrepresenting both of their records & proposals. Boyda hasn't voted in the largest tax increase in history (lie, lie, lie Lynn) and Obama's tax proposals will result in substantially lower taxes for almost everyone that lives in the Kansas 2nd.

Whatever, though- Jenkins is desperate at this point and has to distract and misdirect if she has any hope of pulling off an upset. Just look at the front page of today's Topeka Capital-Journal and you'll understand why pretty dang fast.

Tying Boyda to Obama Won't Work for the GOP

From Campaigns & Elections Magazine:

The incumbent candidate in Mississippi's 1st district congressional race is a pro-gun, pro-life, fiscal conservative-and he's the Democrat.

Therein lies the challenge for Republican Greg Davis, who is running again this fall in a re-match of the most highly publicized special election that the GOP lost this spring. In May, Democrat Travis Childers beat Davis in a district where George Bush won 62 percent of the vote in 2004. That defeat, says Davis, provides a valuable strategic lesson.

"We're going to spend more time going out there and meeting with voters and letting them know who I am, and less on the contrast ads which just didn't work," Davis says, referring to ads that tried to link Childers to presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

Both Davis and the Mississippi GOP say they realize the negative ads linking Childers to Obama and the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright didn't do the trick for conservative voters in northern Mississippi.

[...]

The Mississippi race could be indicative of other congressional contests across the country in which GOP candidates will be facing off against conservative Democrats. And if Greg Davis is right, running against Obama may not work in those districts either.

In Kansas' 2^nd Congressional district, freshman incumbent Rep. Nancy Boyda is another Blue Dog Democrat likely to face a strong Republican challenger this fall. Boyda avoided an official endorsement of Sen. Obama until after he clinched the nomination, and, like Childers, Boyda has said she may not attend the convention in Denver.

In the end, Democrats have learned a lesson the Republicans learned first- run candidates that fight the district, not candidates that fight some pie-in-the-sky ideal of what a candidate should look like. Republicans did it in 1994 and took back the House. Democrats did in 2006 and did the same thing.

Dems like Childers & Boyda, who fight their districts so well, are going to be awfully hard to knock out- and the GOP knows it.

Boyda Supporting Obama for President

After going on the radio yesterday and explaining why she had not yet endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda did say she was supporting the Senator from Illinois- after the radio program was over.

Boyda's invested herself in representing the people of the Kansas 2nd and has tried to stay out of the presidential race as much as she can, but she has always said she'd plan to support whoever would become the Democratic nominee for president.

UPDATE: Boyda makes it even more official...she has endorsed Barack Obama. Why?

She said she decided to announce her support of Obama now because his campaign has promised to focus on all 50 states instead of only so-called swing states.

Montano said Boyda still plans to skip the Democratic National Convention in Denver so she can work in the district. “She’d rather be doing her day job,” she said.

That be that.

LJ World: Boyda to Remain Neutral in Presidential Race

According to an AP story in today's Lawrence Journal-World:

Washington — As the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton played out over the final days of their historic contest, Kansas Rep. Nancy Boyda stayed uncommitted like many of her Democratic colleagues in Congress.

But even after Obama clinched the nomination Tuesday night — and dozens of other undecided superdelegates flocked to the Illinois senator — Boyda vowed to stay on the sidelines and suggested she might even skip this summer’s Democratic National Convention in Denver.

It’s part of Boyda’s ongoing plan to distance herself from the national party and maintain independence in her conservative-leaning district.

[...]

“I’ve created distance from day one,” Boyda said Wednesday. “I’m a Democrat, I’m proud to be a Kansas Democrat, but ultimately I’ve been shown to be very independent. Some people like that and others aren’t crazy about it.”

Boyda is one of fewer than 40 Democrats in Congress who have not yet endorsed Obama or Hillary Clinton in the nomination contest and is the only superdelegate from Kansas who has not backed a candidate.

and from CQPolitics:

Nancy Boyda of Kansas represents a district that is part of Obama’s family story — his mother was born into a military family at Fort Leavenworth and has ties in the area around the University of Kansas.

But Boyda probably won’t be escorting Obama around campus in the foreseeable future, and she says she may even skip the convention. “I’m going to stay focused on doing my job. The good people of Kansas are fine with that,’’ Boyda said.

We told you we'd bring you news when there was more of it- and there you have it: Congresswoman Nancy Boyda plans to forgo an official endorsement of Sen. Barack Obama, and, potentially, a trip to the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

Moore Endorses Obama, Boyda Remains Uncommitted

Everyone in the free world knows this at this point, but last night Barack Obama became the presumptive Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, becoming the first African American to ever lead either major party's ticket.

During the day on Tuesday Kansas Congressman Dennis Moore endorsed Obama, leaving only two of Kansas's superdelegates still uncommitted- Helen Knetzer (president of the National Federation of Democratic Women's Clubs) and Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.

From the Kansas City Kansan:

On Tuesday, Boyda campaign spokesperson Thomas Seay told the Kansan that the congresswoman “is focusing on her work in Washington,” and would probably not pledge her superdelegate vote until a nominee became clear.

That date may be drawing sooner. With a number of new superdelegate commitments in addition to delegates he receives in the final two primaries today, the Illinois senator is closing in on a mathematical lock of the Democratic nomination.

We certainly will let you know as soon as Boyda publicly announces her support- like that article says, it is, at this point, only a matter of time.