Of Bedknobs and Balloting: Republicans See Numbers Fall in Key Counties

Depending on which Kansas Republican you want to listen to, Kansas is either seeing record voting turnout numbers- upwards of 78% by election day with almost 30% of registered voters casting advance ballots- because of the "Obama Effect" or because 78-year-old Republican Senator Pat Roberts has captivated the minds of Kansans young and old alike, driving them en masse to register to vote and stand in long lines at the polls.

You know, it's awfully hard to snicker in writing.

So, here are your perspectives:

Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh on Friday predicted a record voter turnout in Kansas -- caused in part by what he called the “Obama Effect.”

The candidacy of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has produced a surge in voter registration, especially among 18- to 30-year-olds, said Thornburgh, who is a Republican.

“We’re seeing that not only in the state of Kansas but we’re seeing that around the country as well,” he said.

Or, if you'd rather, Christian Morgan's partisan delusion:

“Despite what you might have heard from Ron Thornburgh’s press conference today crediting the ‘Obama Effect’ for increased voter interest in Kansas, below is the real story from Senator (Pat) Roberts’ campaign about the great progress we have made in Republican voter registration and turnout efforts this year,” the release from Kansas Republican Party executive director Christian Morgan said.

We're just going to ignore the crazy "Pat Roberts is the reason people are flooding to the polls" blather and instead focus on the second half of the quote- the part about "the great progress we have made in Republican voter registration" this year.

Christian, dearheart, sometimes your lies are just silly unverifiable prattle, but today you've it upon something that can be proven untrue...with numbers and charts and graphs, even!

According to data compiled by Washburn Univeristy political science professor Bob Beatty, the Kansas Republicans Party doesn't come into the 2008 election with particularly good news on the new voter registration front:

Since 2006, Shawnee County [which accounts for 30% of the district's voters- BB] has added 6,641 voters, a 6.5 percent increase. Of those new registrants, 3,369 are Democrats compared to 2,999 unaffiliated and 223 Republican.

Douglas County, home to 20 percent of district voters, has gained 6,157 registered voters since '06. An astounding 4,944 of the registrants are Democrats, while 1,611 are unaffiliated. Republican numbers actually decreased by 400 registrants.

In Crawford County, Republican registrants went down by 830 registrants, or 10 percent. Democrats added 367, a 4 percent increase, and unaffiliated increased by 550, or 8 percent. [Additionally, Republicans have also lost about 500 voters in Riley County, compared to the Democrats picking up another 1,000 or so. Oh, also, emphasis ours.]

While Republicans certainly still outnumber Democrats in most of the state of Kansas, we wish Christian would share whatever it is he's been smoking if he really does believe Kansas Republicans have done a good job registering new voter.

When the arrow is pointing down, Christian, it's always always a bad sign.

Jenkins should be pleased, of course, to see increase in Republican registrations in a couple of counties that Jim Ryun did very, very well in 2 years ago:

Of 624 new registrants in Pottawatomie County, 464 registered as Republicans but only 91 as Democrats and 87 unaffiliated. In Miami County, there are 676 newly registered Republicans compared to 499 Democrats. Another 739 are unaffiliated.

Good news, yes, but Boyda's advantage in counties that make up 41% of the electorate probably negates Lynn's happy feelings.

What's the final word, Dr. Beatty?

Analyses of several key counties — minus Geary, which only has a handful of voters in the 2nd — shows momentum in the 2nd district with new registered voters is not with the Republicans.

So, Christian, you said something about Republicans doing a good job registering new voters?

KS GOP Hold Seven-Man Protest- with a Great Big Check!

Part Deux of our explanation of the erratic behavior of the Executive Director of the Kansas Republican Party Christian Morgan details his sad, sad little protest of Congresswoman Nancy Boyda's use of the congressional "franking privilege" to send out official newsletters and invitations to public events to her constituents.

Meanwhile on Monday, Morgan joined seven protesters outside Boyda's campaign office to criticize her use of $221,000 in franking charges to, among other activities, make automated calls informing constituents of her "Congress on Your Corner" events.

Yes...that's seven people including Mr. Morgan. Also, the large Michael Scott-esque check he's holding seems to be asking Boyda's campaign to pay for official mailings...which would be illegal...whatever, he's trying to make a point, dang it- who cares if the law gets in the way?

This is one of those silly election year things, and smacks of even increased desperation from the attacks yesterday. Maybe Christian doesn't get it, but one of the reasons Jim Ryun was kicked out on his tail was that he never, ever communicated with his voters until election season. Boyda's not dumb enough to make the same mistake, and the people of her district are better informed because of it.

Oh, but Christian has to pull out the "hypocrisy" card:

Morgan said the mailers were perfectly legal but called Boyda a "hypocrite" for criticizing her 2006 opponent, Jim Ryun, for one of his franking expenditures.

"Nancy Boyda is getting this reputation now as 'Do as I say, not as I do,'" Morgan said.

Seay said the congresswoman raised the issue in 2006 because Ryun had sent out a franked mailer on the last day allowed, three months before the election. The full-color cards "looked and smelled like a campaign piece," he said.

He said Boyda stopped using any franking money in April to try to steer clear of complaints.

Damn, again- even though Morgan wants to make it seem she's being a hypocrite, he just ends up proving she's being more ethical and more prudent than her Republican counterparts.

Sometimes it must just suck to be Christian Morgan.

KS GOP Tries to Make Boyda Doing Her Job a Bad Thing

More on both of these stories tomorrow, but today the Kansas Republican Party tried really, really hard to make Congresswoman Nancy Boyda doing her job actually Congresswoman Nancy Boyda failing to do her job- and their arguments made exactly as much sense as this sentence does.

First, they're trying awfully hard to compare meetings Boyda has missed on Capitol Hill in DC because of other meetings on Capitol Hill something akin to the KPERS Board of Trustee meetings Lynn Jenkins missed for reasons her campaign refuses to state (*cough* campaigning *cough*). Stupid, desperate move there.

Second, right this very minute we hear the Kansas Republican Party is holding a protest outside of Nancy Boyda's campaign headquarters (actually, from what we understand, it's 5 people on the corner across the street from the HQ, but whatever). They're protesting because Boyda's office has spent about $200,000 of it's budget on "voter communication"- stuff like mailers and newspaper ads and the like- you know, doing that horrible, horrible thing Jim Ryun never did: COMMUNICATING WITH CONSTITUENTS. Oh, the horror!

Anyway, we're sure the Republican partisans who hate Nancy Boyda don't want her to talk about anything she's done ever, but, know what? Most voters do, which is why this second little stunt is even more desperate than the first.

Again, more on both tomorrow...particularly if the day is a slow news day in Topeka.

$4.9 Million Raised to Date in KS-02 Race

In what will end up one of the most expensive congressional races in the United States of America, the three main candidates for the Kansas 2nd seat in Congress have raised a combined total of more than $4.9 million.

Overall, candidates in the race have raised a stratospheric $4.9 million, nearly three times the total spent in the 2006 election and ranking it with some of the nation's most expensive contests.

Surprisingly, it is former Congressman Jim Ryun, who lost in the August primary and isn't on the November ballot, who has raised $1.9 million so far, the most of anyone in the race.

Boyda, the freshman Democratic representative, has raised $1.5 million since the beginning of the election cycle.

Jenkins, the Republican state treasurer, brought in $1.4 million, which included $100,000 she loaned her campaign.

That's a huge, huge number from each candidate- particularly from Ryun.

Lots of ink has been spilled over the fact Lynn Jenkins managed an extraordinary take in the last quarter- it was impressive for sure. We can't, however, stress enough that she had no choice but to raise a ridiculous amount after spending nearly every cent she had to beat Jim Ryun in the primary just two months ago and- and this is very important- if it hadn't been for the fundraiser President George W. Bush was supposed to attend for her that ended up being with First Lady Laura Bush Jenkins would have raised less money than Boyda did.

'Course, none of this matters- Boyda's still got more money to spend, and Jenkins' support from the NRCC has gone up in smoke. Not a fun time to be Lynn Jenkins.

Happy Friggin' Birthday, BB!

Holy God- we've been doing this for a year!

More than 400 posts and 30,000 hits later this little blog has made a real life impact on political blogging in Kansas and about Kansas.

We brought you "Making Tom DeLay Smile" and "The Jenky Tax."

We caused the Republicans of the state fits of apoplexy (including sending our former arch rival Bounce Boyda off the deep end....and straight into the Jenkins campaign. Oh, drat, did we say that?).

We've been linked to on the front page of Daily Kos, Swing State Project and Crooks and Liars, and we've had very public fights with Kansas GOP Executive Director Christan Morgan and Kansas Americans for Prosperity Chief Minion Alan Cobb (we miss you Alan...)- two men that really, really should have something better to do than pay any attention to little ol' us.

Above all else, we did exactly what we set out to do: We've trumpeted Congresswoman Nancy Boyda's successes and beat the living hell out of folks who dared liar about her work in Congress...and we had a lot of fun at Jim Ryun (we miss you, too!) and Lynn Jenkins' expense whenever the opportunity arose.

We'd like to thank all of our readers, everyone who comments (particularly Jenkins & KS GOP office staff), and we'd like to just ask all of you keep reading- this is going to get lots more wild before we're all done!

Sarah Palin in for Lynn Jenkins?

Republicans have been known to pull out all the stops in order to try and prop up failing candidates (see Jim Ryun's last minute visit from George W. Bush in 2006), though those last ditch efforts almost always end up doing more harm than good (again, George W. Bush in for Jim Ryun in 2006).

Today, the Kansas Republican Party faces another sagging candidate who is in desperate need of some kind of, you know, umph!, to get her across the finish line.

In swoops the polar bears worst enemy, Gov. Sarah Palin?

No, nothing like that has been announced (though former Governor of Massachusetts and failure of a presidential candidate Mitt Romney is coming in for a visit in a couple of days), but a plan that involves flying dear Ms. Palin in to Kansas jazz up the Repubilcan base is, we're sure, on someone's drawing board somewhere.

Ah, but not so fast- a fellow blogger on the right points out that sending Palin to Kansas does only one thing: signal very, very loudly the GOP is d-e-s-p-e-r-a-t-e.

But sorry Kansas Republicans, no sense sending Palin out campaigning against Nancy Boyda. Doing that quickly sends the "white flag" message nationally.

We agree- though something like that might be the only thing that saves little Lynn Jenkins. She's decided to ignore real issues like the economy and jobs, and instead attack Congresswoman Nancy Boyda for taking votes she didn't take or for spending 10 minutes in a lounge getting a donut during a hearing. Jenkins wants to win the same way Karl Rove has been teaching Republicans to win for years: Ignore what matters to the people, ignore real issues, and, instead, inflame passions and distract.

Well, Lynn, you've got that down pat- as does the good Governor from the Great State of Alaska. Heck, who knows, Lynn, maybe you've got "Failed Vice Presidential Candidate" on your future resume, too?

Just Let the Voters Sort the Lies Out Themselves

Sometimes, in politics, people take firm, principled stands that cost them dearly.

The general election race is only a week old in the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas, and both women running have already taken such stands: Congresswoman Nancy Boyda by rejecting independent expenditures on her behalf, and Lynn Jenkins for not.

Think whatever you want about Boyda's push to prevent outside groups from spending on her race- Lord knows her war chest is in pretty fantastic form, but every last dollar spent on her behalf makes her even more safe than she already is. But her desire to keep this campaign in Kansas Kansas-centered is noble- it's about making politics what it's supposed to be, a reflection of the will of the people being represented, not of some DC-based action group.

Lynn's position is similar to most of the positions she's taken so far: Lock-step compliance with the national GOP platform & and an identical disconnect from the voters we saw from Jim Ryun- exactly the kind of messaging she needs if she plans to get crushed in November.

In this particular instance, Lynn brings us the best of Karl Rove politics: Stand idly by as her big money cronies shove as many lies and as much distortion down the throats of voters that they can't tell up from down and then reap the benefits. Most people running for elective office have the good sense to never admit to anything that cynical- or out-and-out un-American- it is true no one on this blog has ever accused Lynn Jenkins of having good sense:

“It’s free speech,” Jenkins said. “Let anybody come tell their story and let the voters sort it out.”

Of course it's free speech, and, yes, anyone can say anything they want. But, as someone hoping to be a representative of the people of the Kansas 2nd Congressional District in the United States House of Representatives, one would hope you would have the common decency to stand up for those would-be constituents and say, "Enough of the lies, enough big money influence, let's talk about the issues important to Kansans and not the issues important to Washington, DC special interests." No, the mind-numbing ambition of our little state treasurer certainly won't allow that. Instead, Lynn, you're doing what the man you beat did- you're just going to sit back and let Washington dictate to you what needs done, and heaven help the people of the Second District start hearing real-live lies about Nancy Boyda, because you sure as Hell aren't going to do a damn thing about it.

Lynn, it's this kind of cavalier "just let the voters sort out the lies themselves" attitude coming from the Republican Party that put this country in the miserable mess we're in today. How do you expect the people of the district to trust you to represent them in Congress if you won't even make sure the election your running in is fair & honest?

This kind of rhetoric is old and tired- the same song and dance we had for 10 years that voters rejected in 2006.

"People are so tired of that kind of partisanship that they're looking for a change," Boyda said. "They've had enough of the infighting, and that's why I'm running for re-election: because Congress needs the right kind of change."

Lynn Jenkins, ladies and gentlemen- just more of the same.

Right Out of the Gate, Jenkins Falters

In the universe of things to never, ever say in politics, Lynn Jenkins' quote from her press conference yesterday ranks near the top:

"Jim and I agree on a whole lot more than we disagree on, and we certainly agree on the direction of the nation," said Jenkins, surrounded by Republicans on the House floor.

Oh, you stupid tone-deaf woman. The majority of your would-be constituents don't want anyone even kind of like Jim Ryun in Congress. That's why Congresswoman Nancy Boyda beat him in 2006...and it's why you just beat him on Tuesday!

That's as stupid as saying "You know, I'm a CPA, and, thus, I know jack-shit about military things..." (We're paraphrasing...)

It was stupid to admit, stupid to sing, but, of course, it's true. Be it on irresponsible tax policy (favoring Big Oil over the middle class) or continuing the Republican Culture of Corruption (not demanding ads produced by her lobbyist donors be taken off the air during the primary), Lynn Jenkins is just more of the same miserably failed Republican leadership we've all come to know and detest over the last decade.

Thank you so, so much, for reminding voters, Lynn.

But, hell, what can we expect? The day after she won her primary by harping on "new Republican leadership," Jenkins swaddled herself in GOP party hacks: Christian Morgan, Kris Kobach, Ray Merrick, Todd Tiahrt, and, of course, Jim Ryun in one of those great juxtapositions. Which were we to pay attention to, Lynn, the empty rhetoric or the frightening visual?

Ryun to Endorse Jenkins

From the Topeka Capital-Journal:

Kansas GOP officials said Ryun would attend a news conference at 1 p.m. Thursday at the Statehouse to endorse Jenkins.

“I made that commitment,” Ryun said. “We have got to work together to win this seat back.”

Well, God bless you, Jim Ryun, for being the big man and endorse Lynn. Repaying the favor she paid you when she endorsed you in 2004? Perhaps just doing exactly what she did...endorsing someone you think is doing a bad job just because you're being told to?

Hmm?

Jenkins Squeaks Past Ryun

Results:

Lynn Jenkins: 32,240 (50.8%)

Jim Ryun: 31,233 (49.2%)


Jenkins managed to pull out substantial wins in 15 counties, compared to just 10 falling in for Ryun.

Primary Day!

After all these many months, today is finally the day- the day on which Kansas Republicans get to decide which monumentally flawed candidate they'll put up against Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.

Will they pick the man she beat, the former Member of Congress already turned out on his ear once before, who is looked on as a do-nothing by moderates & conservatives alike, and who still, even after months of campaigning, has yet to come up with any legislation he supported or any bills he passed during his entire 10 year term in the United States House of Representatives.

Or, will they instead choose our light-weight, disgustingly ambitious State Treasurer, a woman who has been elected to two different offices two separate times only to then bail on her constituents to run for something bigger and more shiny- a woman who, while in the state legislature, voted to increase taxes 12 times, and who is perfectly happy to admit she knows literally nothing about our military, but will be very happy to do as she's told.

What will Kansas Republicans do? Our prediction: They're going to stick with the evil they already know. Jenkins' name recognition in most of the district is just too light for her to be able to dislodge Ryun, and while her apparent plan of smashing Ryun in Shawnee County while doing what she can to mitigate her loses in the rest of the district might have worked, she got started too late, she went negative too late...her campaign could be studied as a perfect example of an opportunity squandered.

We'll know tonight, however- and, when turnout is as low as is expected today, literally anything is possible.

Primary Challenge

If you haven't seen it yet, CQ Politics had a good piece posted yesterday about the KS-02 race.

While the decision of the district’s rank-and-file Republican voters is still up in the air, Ryun is clearly the preferred candidate of most of the national party figures and sympathetic organizations that have invested in the contest.

Of a total of $1.8 million in receipts through July 16 — much more than the total of $1.1 million he raised for his 2006 election cycle — Ryun reported about $241,000 raised from political action and candidate committees, including those of many of his former House Republican colleagues. His total also includes $1.4 million in individual contributions.

Jenkins reported raising $757,000 total through July 16, which included $101,000 in personal funds. A campaign committee related to Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Florida donated to Jenkins’ campaign, as did committees connected to Illinois Rep. Judy Biggert and former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey. But Jenkins’ total of $45,000 from PACs and candidate committees was much less than that received by Ryun.

The article continues to tell us more about the make-up of the two candidate's platforms. They both are anti-immigration, and taxes has become a huge element of this campaign with a noteworthy independent expenditure very early on attacking Lynn Jenkins for her taxing taxes, we of course brought you the Jenky Tax earlier this year.

“In Kansas, if you position yourself as a moderate Republican in the primary, you may as well say ‘I’m also on a suicide mission,’” said Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University in Topeka, the state capital and the 2nd District’s largest city. “Once you get to the general, that’s something you may want to work on.”

Jenkins has faced a challenge, though, in eroding the strong support Ryun typically received in the past from strongly conservative voters, including those who give high priority to social issues. Ryun has campaigned by portraying Jenkins as less conservative than she purports to be, and has strongly criticized her record on fiscal issues.

Beatty, who has been interacting with the candidates as a political analyst for 27News on Topeka’s local NBC affiliate, noted that Kansas has closed primaries, so appealing to the Republican base is all-important in Tuesday’s outcome. Unaffiliated voters make up 27 percent of the district’s electorate, but they are not permitted to participate in the primary.

There is more - worth the read, and always interesting to speculate what will happen tomorrow.

Topeka Bridge Finally Opens

Congresswoman Nancy Boyda was on hand to celebrate the opening of the Topeka Blvd. Bridge. As a frequent driver in Topeka I personally am grateful! But more, I think I can speak for the general traffic in Topeka that its a great blessing.

According to the CapJournal

"The opening came 70 years after Topekans first came by the thousands to celebrate the opening of the Topeka Avenue Bridge — but with temperatures reaching 100 degrees Sunday, the crowd at the ribbon-cutting ceremony numbered in the hundreds, not thousands. The $51.1 million bridge opened to traffic at 10 p.m. Sunday."

The picture above features "Adam Pfeifer, 18, of Topeka High School" who according to the caption "spontaneously includes Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Kan., in the performance Sunday during the bridge's opening"

Amusingly enough former Rep. Jim Ryun is not pictured according to that same caption.

Noteworthy of course is Ryun's eagerness to attend the opening and continue to take credit for his "work" in this project.

According to the August 17, 2004 piece by the CapJournal:

"Ryun voted against a bill in December 2003 that added $8.5 million in funding for the bridge and nearly $24 million for the 2nd District as a whole."

Wowzers! Thanks Jim! Great leadership there...

2nd Chances

Does Jim Ryun deserve a 2nd Chance in the 2nd? Its the question asked by today's AP article in the Hutchinson Daily News.

Nationally, both parties view the 2nd District race as highly competitive. Boyda, Jenkins and Ryun raised more than $3.5 million through mid-July, and Ryun and Jenkins have begun aired competing television ads.

Democrats in Kansas believe that Barack Obama's campaign for president has energized young voters and brought new voters to the polls - helping Boyda. Jenkins argues that the GOP needs a new candidate to beat her, but Ryun, whose raised about $1.7 million, said his conservative views still sell well.

Evidently some just aren't sure Ryun is the right babe for the job.

"It never seemed like he was on the forefront of anything," Malle said. "He wasn't generally around unless it was election time.

Really? We hadn't noticed.

Ryun Endorsed by NRA

In one of those prized endorsement moments, Jim Ryun has secured the nod from the National Rifle Association in his race against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins.

From Roll Call: (sub. required)

Former Rep. Jim Ryun on Tuesday picked up a key endorsement from the National Rifle Association in his bid to outlast state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd district GOP primary.

The NRA gave Ryun an “A” grade for his record on Second Amendment issues; Jenkins received a “C.” The group’s backing could prove crucial in the heavily rural, eastern Kansas seat.

“I am honored to have the endorsement of the National Rifle Association,” Ryun said in a statement.

The winner of the Aug. 5 primary will face freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda (D), who defeated Ryun in 2006 despite the Republican lean of the district.

This isn't a make-or-break kind of deal, but it certainly is a feather in Jim's cap. Also, it's our guess Kansas Republican primary voters will be happier with his endorsement from the NRA than they are with Lynn's from WISH List.

Just a guess.

Ryun Airs Negative TV Ad

Republicans being all negative today:

Jenkins Goes Negative

Gloves = off.

Post Debate Tappin'

A blast from our past...but still hilarious.

Send a JibJab Sendables® eCard Today!

Jenkins Endorsed by the Kansas City Star

An excellent endorsement for Jenkins- it'll appear in tomorrow's Kansas City Star:

U.S. HOUSE

2ND DISTRICT

In the Republican primary, we recommend Lynn Jenkins, who is in her second term as Kansas treasurer. She has been an energetic and capable officeholder, and speaks with enthusiasm about confronting national problems.

Jenkins made the state's college savings plans more accessible, created financial literacy programs and zealously sought to match unclaimed property with its owners.

She is a passionate advocate of good money management and promises to vigorously attack waste in the federal budget and pursue stronger border security.

Jenkins also has an ability to get along with politicians across the spectrum.

Also seeking the GOP nomination is Jim Ryun, who previously held this congressional seat but lost to Nancy Boyda in the general election two years ago.

Boyda is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Social Network Battleground

First off- so sorry! It dawned one of us last night that we didn't post an update to our social network tracker last week- our error, and we hope none of you were too put our by our omission...

We're tracking Facebook and MySpace only.

Candidate	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends
	6/14/08	6/21/08	6/28/08	7/06/08	7/12/08	7/26/08
Rep. Nancy Boyda (D)
FB Profile	493	607	874	959	989	1,028
FB Page	820	847	853	872	890	921
FB Group	415	431	457	600	692	721
MySpace	1,912	1,933	1,941	1,985	2,023	2,060
Frm. Rep. Jim Ryun (R)
FB Profile	142	152	163	173	184	196
FB Page	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
FB Group	27	90	105	121	127	131
MySpace	12	13	14	14	14	14
Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R)
FB Profile	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
FB Page	92	92	99	104	113	117
FB Group	265	266	274	273	305	305
MySpace	10	10	10	10	10	10

Again, Boyda & Ryun see improvements, while Jenkins is just sittin' still. Like, so, so many commenters have said (our guess- Jenkins supporters), friends on social networking sites certainly don't determine electoral success- but nearly do yard signs, or lists of endorsements, or anything like that. The world of organizing via social networking sites is just like old-fashioned door-to-door- it's another way to engage people, inform people, and convince people you're the right person for the job.

And, there is something undeniable here: Something Congresswoman Nancy Boyda has done has engaged a couple thousand people online, and Ryun & Jenkins can't compete with that. Does it mean anything? Nothing other than Boyda has a pool of potential supporters already identified that Ryun & Jenkins neither one have. That can't be but a good thing.

Remember, each week we'll indicate any up and down movement by putting increasing numbers in bold and falling numbers in italics.