"The American Conservative" Predicts Boyda Victory

Why Mr. Larison loves Nancy Boyda so we do not know, but he's told it like it is for two years and does it again today:

In the House, Democrats will lose TX-22 and FL-16, as these are normally heavily Republican districts that were lost due to past scandals, as well as PA-11 (Kanjorski’s seat) and LA-06 (Cazayoux will not prevail in the general), but Nancy Boyda in Kansas and Shea-Porter in New Hampshire will be re-elected.

You know, if Lynn Jenkins had only decided to run on something...anything...rather than just let her campaign be consumed by attack ads and misinformation drives, this all might be coming down to a different swan song.

Oh well, too bad for her!

The American Conservative: Boyda's "Walk Out"

This piece from The American Conservative dovetails nicely as a response to some of the nutsy-ness that came out of the mouths of Jim Ryun & Lynn Jenkins last night:

Last summer, I noted the numerous references to Nancy Boyda’s abrupt departure from an Armed Services Committee hearing featuring testimony from Gen. Keane. War supporters kept flogging this as evidence of antiwar Democrats’ intransigence and inflexibility in the face of new evidence. Never mind that Boyda’s frustration with administration spin on Iraq was, is, widely shared, and her gesture, while a tad dramatic, was actually appreciated in many quarters. Now Politico has dredged up the episode in its profile of five at-risk Democratic incumbents (most of whom are freshmen elected to traditionally Republican-leaning districts in ‘06) as one of the reasons why Boyda’s re-election is at risk. At the heart of this sort of analysis is a very much inside-the-Beltway assumption that someone’s opposition to the “surge” will prove to be a major liability for Democratic candidates. Just as I am doubtful that obsessing about the “surge” will aid McCain, I very much doubt that opposition to it is going to hurt House members.

One small problem that I see with Politico’s analysis is that it seems to pay no attention to the opinions of the actual people in Kansas’ 2nd District. At last glance, Boyda was leading former Rep. Jim Ryun by 17 points in a poll last month (and she was leading her alternative Republican challenger by 30), and her approval numbers were quite good. As Reid Wilson reported:

68% of respondents in her district said she was doing an excellent or good job, while just 21% had a negative impression of her job performance. 54% said they would definitely or probably vote to re-elect Boyda, while just 35% said they would give someone else a shot.

68% approval is usually a good sign that a House member is going to be returned to office. If these numbers are any indication of how Kansans are responding to Boyda’s performance, those predicting or hoping that anti-”surge” Democrats in “red” districts are going to lose because of their prominent opposition to the “surge” are going to be proven wrong.

In the end this "incident" is anicent history, and simply will not overwhelm all the good Boyda has managed to accomplish during her two years in office.

The American Conservative: Boyda May be Safe

A few days ago we linked to a piece written for The American Conservative- and, like we said then, that isn't a periodical we would normally ever...ever...read. But, again, they have brought us gold that we, in turn, are bringing to you.

Kansas’ 2nd District may be turning into a safe seat for the Democrats, according to this result. Generic approval for Congress is an abysmal 12% these days, but the personal job approval ratings for new Democratic incumbents appear to be very good, and we all know that the generic Congressional ballot is overwhelmingly pro-Democratic. As far as Nancy Boyda is concerned, there does not seem to be voter’s remorse over her 2006 election, which supports my earlier guess that her seat was not as vulnerable as the race rankings suggest that it is. Pretty clearly, contrary to what I was saying earlier this month, her endorsement of Obama has had no meaningful effect on support for her in the district.

Which, of course, we said at the time.

KS-02 ought to be one of the GOP’s best chances to retake a seat lost in the midterms, and that possibility seems more remote by the day. Things may change once the Republicans settle on a nominee, but there is no reason right now to think that a Boyda-Ryun rematch would yield a different result.

We're as buoyed by these polling results as this poor conservative is dejected by them, but, as realists, we know perfectly well these numbers will move a great deal after the Republicans start pummeling Congresswoman Boyda with negative TV. But, at this point, this is just another "Republican seat" slipping out of the grasp of the Republican Party. We can't forget they'll fight dirty to prevent that from happening.

The American Conservative: Not Clear GOP Can Beat Boyda

You might not suspect it, but we aren't usual readers of The American Conservative magazine, but we do get Jim Ryun, Lynn Jenkins & Nancy Boyda Google Alerts, so that brings into our laps all kinds of publications we wouldn't normally see.

We're awfully glad this particular piece dropped out of heaven for us though- it's called "The GOPocalypse Keeps Getting Worse." Catchy, don't you think?

When asked which party should control Congress, Democrats win 52-33, which is the largest lead any party has had in 13 years and is a larger lead for the Democrats than they had two years ago. Anyone who cites the high disapproval numbers for Congress as proof that the public has wearied of the Democratic majority is kidding himself.

We've said it before...perhaps now the Republican nuts who have found the blog will believe it, since now it's coming out of the mouth of a fellow conservative. Or, what, is this realist just a liberal in disguise? It's so hard to tell anymore.

The author mopes around in the garden of Republican sorrow for a long time- running through the list of upwards of 30 seats the Democrats have a very serious shot at wresting away from the Republicans in 2008 before finally getting the the Kansas 2nd.

Nancy Boyda’s endorsement of Obama may come back to haunt her in her district, partly because she succeeded against Jim Ryun because she kept her distance from national Democrats last cycle. It may be a mistake for her to associate herself with the national party now that she is an incumbent, but it’s not clear that the Republicans will be able to recover that seat. [emphasis ours]

It actually made this blogger titter to read, "but it's not clear that the Republican will be able to recover that seat."

As to Boyda's endorsement of Obama hurting her...if she had instead run from him as fast as she could in the opposite direction would that have prevented the Republican Party from trying to tie her to him? No, no, no- of course not, they were going to try do it anyway. They'll run their already thrice failed ads again, while Boyda's time back home, two years working with the district & the fact she won't be going to the Democratic National Convention will be plenty to make her distinct in the eyes of the voters.

But, anyway...it's not just "not clear" that the Republicans will be able to beat Nancy Boyda, it's apparent they won't be able to beat her.