Rundown of the Ratings: KS-02

Because someone was silly today and tried to comment something saying this race was something other than a toss up or leaning toward Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, we wanted to give you all nice clickable links to every single major race ranking list so you can see for yourselves what the political professionals think is going on in the 2nd District of Kansas:

• Charlie Cook- The Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic (Oct. 30)
• Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball '08: Democratic Hold (Oct. 30)
• National Journal: Not in the top 55 most competitive seats (the KS-02 was 44rd last week) (Oct. 30)
• Stu Rothenberg- The Rothenberg Political Report: Toss Up/ Tilt Democratic (Oct. 29)
• Swing State Project: Lean D (Oct. 29)
• Washington Post: 43rd Most Likely Seat to Switch Party (Oct. 24)
• RealClearPolitics: Toss Up or Leans GOP (depending on where you look on the site); 19th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party (Last update unknown)
• CQ Politics: No Clear Favorite (Last update unknown)

So, there you go- how all of the big national folk think this race is shaking out. It's obviously tight- a race for a Democrat in an R+7 will always be- but it's clear most agree with our assesment: Lynn Jenkins simply hasn't convinced the voters of the Kansas 2nd Nancy Boyda's been a bad representative, and Jenkins and the conservative third party groups would have been wise to keep their outlandish claims about "the largest tax increase in history" in their hats.

GOP "Death List" has KS-02 as "Lean Democratic"

Fairly good news for Congresswoman Nancy Boyda- her Republican colleagues in the House think she's probably going to get re-elected according to a chart produced...and then frustratingly spread to the wind:

Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic rout that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades. A document provided to Washington Whispers from a House GOP official shows that they could lose a net 34 seats.

Just in case you think it's all a scam:

The document provided to Whispers is no gag: It comes from one of the key House GOP vote counters. The source called it a "death list." The tally shows several different ratings of 66 House Republicans in difficult races or open seats held by retiring Republicans. "Rating 1" finds 10 Republicans "likely gone." Those districts are New York 13, Alaska, Arizona 1, Virginia 11, New York 25, Illinois 11, Florida 24, Michigan 7, Nevada 3, and North Carolina 8. Under "Rating 2," nine Republican seats are listed as "leaning Democratic." Under "Rating 3," some 22 GOP seats are listed as "true toss-up." The fourth rating, "lean Republican," finds 15 seats in the category that comes with this warning: "If there's a wave, some could be in trouble." The last "likely Republican" rating finds another 11. Only three Democratic districts are seen as "hopeful" GOP pickups. They are Florida 16, Pennsylvania 11, and Texas 22. Another 10 Democratic seats are listed as "possible" pickups. The loss of 34 House GOP seats is among the most dire predictions in Republican circles. Most analysts have suggested a drop of at least 20 seats and at most 30 seats. A key Democratic official refused to provide his own list but said, "I'd rather be us than them."

Want to see it for yourself? Well, it's all online, right here. Or, view it below:

GOP Death List2 - Upload a Document to Scribd

KS-02 Rankings & Ratings: Boyda in a Close Race Pundits Say She's Likely to Win

Something is certain in the Kansas 2nd, regardless of how much faith you put in DC talking heads: The race for the seat currently held by Congresswoman Nancy Boyda is going to be hard fought- and, quite possibly, the hottest congressional race in the country.

We say that, but we thought it would be nice to back it up with some context for you. We love context...and links...links are awesome in blogs.

So, today, we thought we'd give you a quick rundown of how those pundits perceive the KS-02 right now, and then tell you why that makes sure that much more optimisic as we get closer and closer to election day (180 days...).

• CQ Politics: No Clear Favorite
• Swing State Project: Lean Democratic
• Roll Call: Tossup
• Rothenberg Political Report: Pure Tossup
• Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
• Larry J. Sabato: Leans Democratic
• DC's Political Report: 5 Star Democratic Retention

Those of us who support Boyda will point you to the four raters who say the seat leans in her direction, while we're sure those of you who hate her with a burning evil passion will point to the three who say the seat is just too close to call at this point. You needn't scream, we can see it, too.

That's fine, of course, but it certainly doesn't point to anything even approaching a likely lose. No, if anyone thought that was going to be the case, they'd classify this seat as a "Leans Republican" or even a "Likely Republican." But no one does- ever- and they haven't in the nearly year and a half Boyda has been in office.

That in itself is an amazing turn of events- in just two years this seat went from "Solid Republican" to "Leans Democratic." Thanks in large part to the ineptness of the Kansas Republican Party leadership, of course, and to a gentleman named Jim Ryun. Oh, and of course to our current Congresswoman's ability to connect with her district in away they haven't felt since Jim Slattery represented them in the Eighties.

So, take it or leave it that's where the national pundits put this race as of today. Our guess it will only look better and better for Boyda as the Republican primary takes to the TVs districtwide.

But when 26% of Republicans say they'd rather vote Boyda than one of her Republican counterparts, you know things are getting better in Kansas.