Pundit: Boyda More Secure

One of the more conservative prognosticators of political fortunes in this country, Stu Rothenberg, has, for the first time in recent months, moved Congresswoman Nancy Boyda's race for re-election out of the catagory of "Pure Toss-up" to "Toss-up/Tilt Democratic."

The race, of course, is still close, and could still turn on a dime, but it's nice to see some recognition of the fact Boyda's remarkably popular back at home, and that makes this R+7 seat not so likely to flip in 2008.

Boyda Brokers Deal on Military Housing

From CQ Today:

A long-running dispute between Republican Sen. Pat Roberts and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank over proposed changes to the low-income housing tax credit was quietly resolved with compromise language tucked into the recently cleared housing bill.

The tax credit is an important incentive for building affordable housing.

Roberts wanted to allow developers to be able to ignore the military housing allowance when calculating whether families qualify as "low-income." That change would largely affect communities near burgeoning military bases, such as Fort Riley in Roberts' home state of Kansas.

But Frank, D-Mass., and House Ways and Means Chairman Charles B. Rangel, D-N.Y., objected. Military housing, they argued, is the Defense Department's responsibility, and they didn't want servicemembers crowding out home-building efforts for lower-income civilians.

Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Kan., whose district includes Fort Riley, helped broker a deal that ended up in the broad housing bill (HR 3221) the Senate cleared July 26.

The compromise would sharply limit the number of bases where the new rule would apply. Qualifying bases are those that have grown in population by 20 percent between Dec. 31, 2005, and June 1, 2008, and those that have at least 1,000 members of the armed forces assigned to them. A sunset for the provision was included at the Defense Department's request, Boyda said.

Those changes reduced the provision's cost to $33 million over 10 years; by contrast, one Senate-passed version of the provision would have cost the government $259 million over the same period.

In December, each chamber of Congress twice passed differing versions of legislation affecting military tax breaks (HR 3997) without a single dissenting vote. But lawmakers couldn't agree on identical versions of the bill in part because of the military housing provision. A version of that bill became law (PL 110-245) without any such provision.

Frank said he wanted to make sure the solution matched the problem. "This is a much more limited thing," he said.

Nancy Boyda: Bridging the gap between parties- making sure Kansas gets what we deserve.

Ryun Endorsed by NRA

In one of those prized endorsement moments, Jim Ryun has secured the nod from the National Rifle Association in his race against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins.

From Roll Call: (sub. required)

Former Rep. Jim Ryun on Tuesday picked up a key endorsement from the National Rifle Association in his bid to outlast state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd district GOP primary.

The NRA gave Ryun an “A” grade for his record on Second Amendment issues; Jenkins received a “C.” The group’s backing could prove crucial in the heavily rural, eastern Kansas seat.

“I am honored to have the endorsement of the National Rifle Association,” Ryun said in a statement.

The winner of the Aug. 5 primary will face freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda (D), who defeated Ryun in 2006 despite the Republican lean of the district.

This isn't a make-or-break kind of deal, but it certainly is a feather in Jim's cap. Also, it's our guess Kansas Republican primary voters will be happier with his endorsement from the NRA than they are with Lynn's from WISH List.

Just a guess.

Letter: Morgan Owes Boyda Apology

Here, here! From the Pittsburg Morning Sun:

Dear Editor:

Recently I read an e-mail release (dated July 11, 2008) authored by Christian Morgan, Executive Director of the Kansas Republican Party, which accused Congresswoman Nancy Boyda of being less than honest by "not telling her constituents the whole truth" about assistance from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in regard to a recent purchase of campaign advertising time paid for by the committee.

The truth is, in conformity with campaign finance laws, Nancy has absolutely no control over whether the DCCC buys ads on her behalf.

On July 18, 2008, the Topeka Capital-Journal wrote: "Congresswoman Nancy Boyda says she wants the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other third-party organizations making independent expenditures to political campaigns to keep out of the 2nd congressional district race in Kansas. The DCCC, as a third party, is not associated with any candidate’s campaign and acts on its own."

As Christian Morgan knows, independent expenditures in favor of a candidate can be made (remember the Swiftboaters?), but they cannot coordinate with the candidate and the candidate cannot ask for or influence the content of the ad. Further, the DCCC has bought the time, but has not run any ads yet for Nancy. Christian owes Nancy Boyda an apology.

Don and Betty Hight
Pittsburg

Ryun Airs Negative TV Ad

Republicans being all negative today:

Jenkins Goes Negative

Gloves = off.

Post Debate Tappin'

A blast from our past...but still hilarious.

Send a JibJab Sendables® eCard Today!

Jenkins Endorsed by the Kansas City Star

An excellent endorsement for Jenkins- it'll appear in tomorrow's Kansas City Star:

U.S. HOUSE

2ND DISTRICT

In the Republican primary, we recommend Lynn Jenkins, who is in her second term as Kansas treasurer. She has been an energetic and capable officeholder, and speaks with enthusiasm about confronting national problems.

Jenkins made the state's college savings plans more accessible, created financial literacy programs and zealously sought to match unclaimed property with its owners.

She is a passionate advocate of good money management and promises to vigorously attack waste in the federal budget and pursue stronger border security.

Jenkins also has an ability to get along with politicians across the spectrum.

Also seeking the GOP nomination is Jim Ryun, who previously held this congressional seat but lost to Nancy Boyda in the general election two years ago.

Boyda is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Social Network Battleground

First off- so sorry! It dawned one of us last night that we didn't post an update to our social network tracker last week- our error, and we hope none of you were too put our by our omission...

We're tracking Facebook and MySpace only.

Candidate	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends	# of Friends
	6/14/08	6/21/08	6/28/08	7/06/08	7/12/08	7/26/08
Rep. Nancy Boyda (D)
FB Profile	493	607	874	959	989	1,028
FB Page	820	847	853	872	890	921
FB Group	415	431	457	600	692	721
MySpace	1,912	1,933	1,941	1,985	2,023	2,060
Frm. Rep. Jim Ryun (R)
FB Profile	142	152	163	173	184	196
FB Page	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
FB Group	27	90	105	121	127	131
MySpace	12	13	14	14	14	14
Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R)
FB Profile	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
FB Page	92	92	99	104	113	117
FB Group	265	266	274	273	305	305
MySpace	10	10	10	10	10	10

Again, Boyda & Ryun see improvements, while Jenkins is just sittin' still. Like, so, so many commenters have said (our guess- Jenkins supporters), friends on social networking sites certainly don't determine electoral success- but nearly do yard signs, or lists of endorsements, or anything like that. The world of organizing via social networking sites is just like old-fashioned door-to-door- it's another way to engage people, inform people, and convince people you're the right person for the job.

And, there is something undeniable here: Something Congresswoman Nancy Boyda has done has engaged a couple thousand people online, and Ryun & Jenkins can't compete with that. Does it mean anything? Nothing other than Boyda has a pool of potential supporters already identified that Ryun & Jenkins neither one have. That can't be but a good thing.

Remember, each week we'll indicate any up and down movement by putting increasing numbers in bold and falling numbers in italics.

Ryun, Jenkins Debate Posted Online

For those who missed the Jim Ryun- Lynn Jenkins throwdown (Babe-gate and all), you can either watch it again today in a little more than a half hour on KSNT Channel 27 in Topeka, or you can find the complete debate online on CJOnline.com- just scroll down to the video box, click it over to "Local Video" and witness the craziness yourself!

Ryun's New Negative Mailer

New from the Ryun campaign taking a direct shot at Lynn Jenkins & her penchant for increasing taxes on hard working Kansans:

Don't worry, babe- it'll all be over soon.

Boyda & Jenkins Pre-Primary FEC

Lynn Jenkins:

Beginning of Period: $486,228.54
Raised: $134,829.90
Disbursements: $131,846.68
Cash-on-Hand: $489,211.81


Congresswoman Nancy Boyda

Beginning of Period: $814,103.78
Raised: $243,043.61
Disbursements: $165,421.82
Cash-0n-Hand: $891,725.57

Once again, Boyda finds herself far, far in the lead when it comes to the number that matters most: cash still in the bank. Jenkins, while still holding a good chunk of change, isn't figuring this puppy right- what good is $500,000 in the bank if you lose the primary? True, she's upped her spending in the last several days with new TV and some nasty, nasty mailing hitting Ryun for being, well, worthless, she's still probably going to end the primary cycle with lots of money in the bank and with nothing to spend it on.

Ryun, on the other hand, is going to end the primary cycle with almost no money left (after an equally aggressive TV buy & some nasty mailers hitting Jenkins on raising taxes)- but all indications are he's going to have a general election still to run in. With Boyda sitting on nearly a million dollars on hand, Ryun'll have a hard time closing on her.

It's crunch time, kids- start watching for negative TV ads.

Ryun's Pre-Primary FEC Filing

First of our pre-primary filings:

Jim Ryun

Beginning of Period: $459,048.51
Raised: $447,382.75
Disbursements: $683,838.64
Cash on Hand: $222,592.62

Probably, too, Ryun will have spend even more between the deadline (July 15) and today.

I got you, babe

One of the most jarring moments of Tuesday night's debate between Jim Ryun and Lynn Jenkins was the one in which Lynn called Jim "babe."

It was just...weird. And markedly non-congressional.

While it was strange (like the rest of Lynn's performance), we aren't sure it really deserved this much ink:

Topeka — In what may be a first in Kansas political history, one candidate publicly called another “babe.”

It happened Tuesday in the televised debate between Lynn Jenkins and Jim Ryun, who are seeking the Republican Party nomination to face U.S. Rep. Nancy Boyda, D-Topeka, in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes west Lawrence.

Jenkins said part of the reason she voted for a tax increase while a legislator was because state lawmakers had to pay for federal mandates from Congress, in which Ryun served at the time.

“We were at your mercy, babe,” she said to Ryun.

A couple of bloggers wrote that if Ryun had said “babe” to Jenkins, he would’ve been labeled a sexist.

Ryun’s campaign manager Kyle Robertson described Jenkins’ use of the term as “childish behavior.”

Pat Leopold, managing Jenkins’ campaign, said Jenkins uses “babe” frequently when talking to her friends, and that it was just an innocent slip.

It was, of course, just an innocent slip...it was still unprofessional, still tacky, and still just...weird.

Jerri Blank from Strangers with Candy weird.

Oh, and hey, lets don't forget the substance of the debate...Ryun was incompetent & Lynn Jenkins has actually raised taxes on every single Kansas family 12 separate times- making her the only candidate in the race on either side to do such a thing.

The American Conservative: Boyda's "Walk Out"

This piece from The American Conservative dovetails nicely as a response to some of the nutsy-ness that came out of the mouths of Jim Ryun & Lynn Jenkins last night:

Last summer, I noted the numerous references to Nancy Boyda’s abrupt departure from an Armed Services Committee hearing featuring testimony from Gen. Keane. War supporters kept flogging this as evidence of antiwar Democrats’ intransigence and inflexibility in the face of new evidence. Never mind that Boyda’s frustration with administration spin on Iraq was, is, widely shared, and her gesture, while a tad dramatic, was actually appreciated in many quarters. Now Politico has dredged up the episode in its profile of five at-risk Democratic incumbents (most of whom are freshmen elected to traditionally Republican-leaning districts in ‘06) as one of the reasons why Boyda’s re-election is at risk. At the heart of this sort of analysis is a very much inside-the-Beltway assumption that someone’s opposition to the “surge” will prove to be a major liability for Democratic candidates. Just as I am doubtful that obsessing about the “surge” will aid McCain, I very much doubt that opposition to it is going to hurt House members.

One small problem that I see with Politico’s analysis is that it seems to pay no attention to the opinions of the actual people in Kansas’ 2nd District. At last glance, Boyda was leading former Rep. Jim Ryun by 17 points in a poll last month (and she was leading her alternative Republican challenger by 30), and her approval numbers were quite good. As Reid Wilson reported:

68% of respondents in her district said she was doing an excellent or good job, while just 21% had a negative impression of her job performance. 54% said they would definitely or probably vote to re-elect Boyda, while just 35% said they would give someone else a shot.

68% approval is usually a good sign that a House member is going to be returned to office. If these numbers are any indication of how Kansans are responding to Boyda’s performance, those predicting or hoping that anti-”surge” Democrats in “red” districts are going to lose because of their prominent opposition to the “surge” are going to be proven wrong.

In the end this "incident" is anicent history, and simply will not overwhelm all the good Boyda has managed to accomplish during her two years in office.

Update on Jenkins/ Ryun Ad Buys

Just as a quick update as to media expenditures from Lynn Jenkins & Jim Ryun:

Jenkins:

Topeka: WIBW, KSNT and KTKA- total of 91 spots for $11,075
Kansas City: KMBC- 45 spots for $20,855
Joplin: KSN, KODE, KOAM and KFJX- total of 102 spots for $11,425

Total buy: $43,355

Ryun:

Topeka: WIBW & KTMJ- total of 138 spots for $14,960
Cable: 206 spots for $1,981
Joplin: KOAM & KFJX- total of 104 spots for $12,680

Total buy: $29,621

Letter to the Editor: Roberts & Ryun Both Useless

From today's Topeka Capital-Journal-

Letter: Enough of them

I am getting tired of Pat Roberts and Jim Ryun telling Kansans how they are for Kansas while their actions dictate otherwise.

For example, Sen. Roberts talks about how Jim Slattery, his opponent in the November election, is a Washington lobbyist. He fails to tell readers that Slattery still has roots here. The front page article July 11 notes Slattery still owns property here, so he comes back to Kansas often. Roberts has two condos in Virginia, land in South Carolina and a home in Dodge City. All of Slattery's property is in Kansas. Who is the real Washington insider?

Also, when Roberts runs his ad about the Boeing contract, why doesn't he mention that he voted to allow the Department of Defense to accept bids from agencies outside of the United States as long as they had some connection to this country (which Northop did).

And let's not forget about former Rep. Jim Ryun. He states he will stand by the principles he had before. Does he not remember those principles are why he was voted out the last time?

Ryun ignored veterans, the lower and middle classes and workers. I know many veterans who called his office to ask for his assistance and his response was that only when their problem reached his committee in Washington would he become involved.

Rep. Nancy Boyda has kept most of her promises since being elected, and she has made her presence known. Every congressman and congresswoman should strive to emulate her.

We cannot afford to have the same bad ideas and philosophies continue in government. We need to keep Ryun out and make sure Roberts knows how the majority of Kansans feel. I wish the true winner the best in the elections.

MICHAEL NORMAN, Topeka

Winner, Losers from Last Night's GOP Debate

Can we just say we didn't realize it was still the 4th of July? But, my, the fireworks we saw last night!

For the most part, the Lynn Jenkins vs. Jim Ryun Republican primary race has been low-key and without the significant explosions we would have expected. Sure, there have been spats and cat fights, but most of that has happened in small venues and received next to no coverage (save on this little blog). Last night's debate on KSNT Channel 27 in Topeka, however, blow the doors off the barn in terms of shear viciousness and negativity from both sides- with Ryun actually managing to come away as the more respectful of the two (hard to believe, right?).

After the contenders voiced agreement on the need to drill for more Alaskan
oil and the necessity of limiting federal spending, former U.S. Rep. Ryun dug
his spurs into Jenkins for voting a dozen times for tax increases while a member
of the Kansas Legislature. Three votes were to raise gasoline taxes, he
said.

"That's not standing up for Kansans," Ryun said.

Jenkins, the Kansas state treasurer and former member of the Kansas
House and Senate, said the core responsibility for those tax hikes often rested
with federal politicians such as Ryun who foisted billions of dollars of
unfunded mandates on states. It is that kind of leadership, she said, that
should be shunned in Washington.

"God love you Jim, I think you had your chance," Jenkins said.

"I voted the right way," Ryun replied.

"We were at your mercy, babe!" Jenkins said. "I think we did the
responsible thing. We balanced the budget."

It really is hard to do a blow-by-blow for this debate- there were just so many blows. So, instead, we're going to do a winners & losers analysis.

Loser(s)

1a. Lynn Jenkins: For many people, last night was their first
experience seeing Jenkins speak, and, we just have to say, it was jarring.
Her body language was strange, her speaking style was strange, her general
demeanor was strange. Most of the time, she came off as condescending and
down right rude and disrespectful. She got in her hits, and they were good
hits for sure- particularly making sure to point out Ryun accomplished nearly
nothing when he was in Congress- but she misjudged when she accused Ryun of
supporting amnesty because he voted to help Haitian and Cuban refugees normalize
their status (what, Lynn, you want to send them back to Communist Cuba?) and her
strange "casting yes and no votes isn't leadership" song and dance makes
all of us think she might actually believe she's running to be President and not
just a freshmen member of the minority party in the House of
Representatives.

Oh, also- Ryun's broadside on Jenkins tax increases is dooming- however
responsible Jenkins knows she was being, she raised taxes 12 times while in the
state legislature, and Ryun was masterful in speaking directly into the camera
and pointing that out again and again and again.

Probably, though, Lynn's most significant problem, outside of the whole tax
increase thing, was that fact she came across as nothing short of weird,
rude, and condescending.

1b. Jim Ryun: Jenkins hit Ryun exactly, perfectly, where he
needs hit- right on the fact that, when he was in Congress he failed the people
of Kansas. When Ryun said he tried to stave off the mortgage crisis
Jenkins said, "Some results there! We can do better." Ryun's
performance was far superior to Jenkins' without any doubt- he seemed more
poised, far less strange, and just more congressional. He dinged Jenkins
for being clueless, ("You really don't understand...") and he called her out for
spewing her ridiculous "voting isn't leadership" rhetoric.

Regardless, though, Ryun came away damaged.

Oh, one last thing- the moderators made a significant mistake letting Ryun get away with and out-and-out lie when he was talking about BRAC funding. He said, while he always worked to secure monies for Kansas BRAC project, Congresswoman Nancy Bodya actually cut funds after she took office. Look, we know we've said it before, but, please people, this old lie needs to die, because it really is nothing other than a lie. It was Ryun & his cronies that cut the funding, funding that Boyda & the new Democratic Congress managed to put back in- plus more. Please, read (again)

So, finally, our night's winner:

Winner

1. Nancy Boyda: Boyda comes away the winner if for no other reason both of her potential Republican challengers showed last night their significant vulnerabilities & that neither of them will be able to provide the voters with any reason at all to switch horses in midstream. Jenkins was right, Ryun had his shot and blew it, and Ryun was right regarding Jenkins penchant to jacking up taxes. On top of that, Jenkins clownish performance in the debate certainly didn't make her seem to be "congressional material" and while that isn't nearly as important as her total lack of a clue, it can't not come into play. Jenkins was particularly hesitant to come after Boyda directly, and while Ryun had no problem with it, he chose to hit her with a lie- so that shows you something about what we're going to see for the next several months.

All in all, last night was entertaining as all get-out...this writer is just blessing his lucky stars that he isn't a Republican.

A Trained Monkey...

Lynn Jenkins, getting more negative (and more desperate) compares Jim Ryun (and Nancy Boyda, too) to trained monkeys.



Just...wow.

What Christian Morgan Really Means: He's Scared to Death

The Kansas Republican Party is falling all over itself, clamoring to tell the world the fact the DCCC purchased ad time for Congresswoman Nancy Boyda means both that Boyda's on the brink of defeat and that it's just proof (proof, I tell you, proof!) that Boyda's beholden to House Democrats.

In the end, Christian Morgan and the KS GOP are trying desperately to get voters to ignore their real motivation behind attacking the ads: They know that, if the DCCC does indeed spend $1.2 million in the Kansas 2nd lauding Nancy Boyda's first 2 years in Congress, whoever ends up winning the primary won't stand a chance in Hell come November.

They want- and who could blame them, really?- to keep the good news about Boyda's record from the eyes and ears of the voting public. They want to do anything they can to make the ads toxic because they're not so dumb that they don't realize what 16,000 media points would do to this district.

So, what is Morgan doing? Painting this as evidence Boyda's in league with the devil herself, Nancy Pelosi, he's alluding Boyda & the House Leadership coordinated the whole thing. That's a mighty significant claim- and in making it Morgan's insinuating Boyda has broken the law, because, just like Washburn political science professor Bob Beatty said last week:

"There's nothing she can do about it. She can't even call and say, 'I don't want it.' Any involvement with third-party independent expenditures would be illegal."

Even though a candidate disavows a third party's actions or asks the group not to be involved in his or her race through a public statement, that doesn't mean the group will comply, Beatty said.

Morgan's not dumb enough to actually say what he's insinuating, because he knows it's not true: he knows Boyda isn't coordinating the ads because he knows she's not breaking the law. He's just trying to manage perceptions...a good trick that we're hoping he doesn't get away with.

Why is he so afraid of the ads the DCCC has bought? Because that much message about all the good things Boyda has done while in office will be impossible for him to cut through. The DCCC might talk about Boyda's efforts to end the Solider Tax (and lowering taxes on 150,000 of our fighting men and women). The ads could talk about Boyda's efforts to secure $80 million in federal investments into Kansas- including money for highways, police departments, and our military bases. And the ads might touch on the fact Boyda's office has helped 2,600 Kansans solve problems with federal agencies ranging from Social Security to Veterans Affairs. And they could talk about so much more...and he's scared to death they will.

Boyda has publicly said she'd rather the DCCC not invest in her race- that's certainly her prerogative. She'll, of course, run her campaign exactly as she always has, independently and free of outside influence. But, as everyone involved knows, the DCCC will run ads if they so chose, no matter how much Boyda or Christian Morgan scream- because it's illegal to coordinate the purchase- or cancellation- of a third party ad buy. The DCCC would have to decide independently to pull out- and we just dont' see that happenin'.

In the end, the straw man Morgan is trying to create here isn't the story- the story is his abject fear someone will knock down his straw man and see the ads for what they really are: An independent buy Boyda legally couldn't have anything to do with- and an independent ad buy with which the Kansas Republican Party cannot even begin to respond. It's nothing more than a ham-fisted attempt on his part pull a bait and switch on the voting public. And it just ain't gonna fly.

Good try though, Christian. Maybe next time.