Monday, August 4, 2008

Primary Challenge

If you haven't seen it yet, CQ Politics had a good piece posted yesterday about the KS-02 race.

While the decision of the district’s rank-and-file Republican voters is still up in the air, Ryun is clearly the preferred candidate of most of the national party figures and sympathetic organizations that have invested in the contest.

Of a total of $1.8 million in receipts through July 16 — much more than the total of $1.1 million he raised for his 2006 election cycle — Ryun reported about $241,000 raised from political action and candidate committees, including those of many of his former House Republican colleagues. His total also includes $1.4 million in individual contributions.

Jenkins reported raising $757,000 total through July 16, which included $101,000 in personal funds. A campaign committee related to Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Florida donated to Jenkins’ campaign, as did committees connected to Illinois Rep. Judy Biggert and former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey. But Jenkins’ total of $45,000 from PACs and candidate committees was much less than that received by Ryun.

The article continues to tell us more about the make-up of the two candidate's platforms. They both are anti-immigration, and taxes has become a huge element of this campaign with a noteworthy independent expenditure very early on attacking Lynn Jenkins for her taxing taxes, we of course brought you the Jenky Tax earlier this year.

“In Kansas, if you position yourself as a moderate Republican in the primary, you may as well say ‘I’m also on a suicide mission,’” said Bob Beatty, a political scientist at Washburn University in Topeka, the state capital and the 2nd District’s largest city. “Once you get to the general, that’s something you may want to work on.”

Jenkins has faced a challenge, though, in eroding the strong support Ryun typically received in the past from strongly conservative voters, including those who give high priority to social issues. Ryun has campaigned by portraying Jenkins as less conservative than she purports to be, and has strongly criticized her record on fiscal issues.

Beatty, who has been interacting with the candidates as a political analyst for 27News on Topeka’s local NBC affiliate, noted that Kansas has closed primaries, so appealing to the Republican base is all-important in Tuesday’s outcome. Unaffiliated voters make up 27 percent of the district’s electorate, but they are not permitted to participate in the primary.

There is more - worth the read, and always interesting to speculate what will happen tomorrow.


Anonymous said...

This is a pretty good account of this race so far. Ryun should win the Republican primary with the aid of the far right which tends to get out in primaries in bigger numbers than moderate Republicans. A Jenkins win is not out of the picture, but her chances are not good to win this one. Oh well, she can go back to being our State Treasurer, a safe job if there ever was one.

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