Wednesday, April 16, 2008

GOP Primary Poll: Ryun Leads Jenkins 50-34

From The Hill:

Former Rep. Jim Ryun leads state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, 50 percent to 34, in a GOP primary poll released by a pro-Jenkins group.

The poll, which was conducted for the state chapter of the Republican Main Street Partnership, showed the 2nd district congressional race narrowing from the 61-27 margin in a poll commissioned by Ryun from May 2007.

The winner of the primary will face freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda (D), who defeated Ryun in 2006.

The poll surveyed 451 self-identified likely primary voters last week by phone and was conducted by Mary Christine and Associates. Mary Christine Banwart is relatively unknown as a pollster but is an assistant professor of communications studies at the University of Kansas.

“The more voters in this district learn about Lynn Jenkins, the more her message resonates, and these poll numbers clearly reflect this,” said Ryan Wright, the executive director of the pro-Jenkins Kansas Traditional Republican Majority.

Ryun campaign manager Kyle Robertson suggested the poll wasn’t credible because it also tested a negative message about Ryun’s connection to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff: “It’s obvious that Lynn Jenkins will use dirty tactics to avoid discussing her latest plan to raise taxes on Social Security.”

— Aaron Blake
So it appears Jenkins campaign activity has made a dent in Ryun's standing amongst likely Republican primary voters, but, really, what is Kyle Robertson complaining about? His boss is still kicking tail, and Jenkins has succeeded in making more people undecided.

Still, for a statewide "moderate" officeholder to not even break 40% against a once-defeated has-been should be horribly unsettling for all you Jenkins supporters out there.

But, looks like the conventional wisdom remains the same: Jim Ryun will beat Lynn Jenkins in Republican primary.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

sucks for Jenkins...

Anonymous said...

Every republican voter in Kansas knows Jim Ryun and he still can't garner a majority of their support - sucks for Ryun. And what's with Ryun resorting to lies about Jenkins? She says on her website that she has pledged to not increase taxes.

Anonymous said...

An incumbent (and he is a primary incumbent) hovering at or below the 50% mark is in trouble. And how is it Jenkins closed the gap in half without running any advertising? This is bad news for Ryun and he knows it. That's why he's resorting to lies about taxes. Wish they would have polled the general election matchup v. Boyda

Anonymous said...

This is strange...because Ryun IS at a majority of support...most 2nd district Republicans plan to vote for him.

Jenkins won the 2nd Dist with HUGE percentages in 2006...and only 34% of people polled want her in congress? that's sad.

Anonymous said...

Jenkins loses for two reasons. One - her plan to raise my social security taxes. Two - her non-existent plan to stop immigrants from stealing my job.

Anonymous said...

hell not even illegal aliens want your job

Anonymous said...

Why is it that Pat Roberts at 53% is vulnerable but 50% for Jim Ryun is a good thing?

And Boyda at 43% approval rating makes her a shoe in

This blog is not affiliated in any way with the Kansas Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, the Office of Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, or the campaign to re-elected Congresswoman Nancy Boyda. All commentary herein not directly attributed must be considered the opinion of the authors of this blog and not of any other individual, including Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.