A GOP House leadership aide told the Politico last week that “if we don’t win in Mississippi, I think you are going to see a lot of people running around here looking for windows to jump out of.”They didn't win in Mississippi.
For the third time in a row, the Republicans have failed to keep a solidly Republican House seat in their column For the third time Democrats have been elected over supremely well funded Republicans to seats that haven't seen Democratic representative in the last 20, 30, 40 or more years.
For the third time in a row, seats just as or even more Republican than Nancy Boyda's have been won by Democrats, even as the Republicans have scrambled desperately to paint the Democrats with national brushes, when it's local issues, and deep, deep dissatisfaction with the Republican brand, that has won the day time and time- and time- again.
First it was Congressman Bill Foster's stunning win in the seat once held by Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert in Illinois- a seat with a PVI of R-5 that the Democrat carried 53% of the vote. Then, Congressman Don Cazayoux was elected in the Louisiana 6th- a district with a PVI of R-1o that hadn't been represented by a Democrat since 1974. And now, just tonight, Congressman-elect Travis Childers has found himself elected in the Mississippi 1st- a district that has been held comfortably by Republicans since 1994 and that Childers took tonight with 54%.
In each race, the Republicans pulled exactly the same tricks they're going to try to use against Nancy Boyda. They're going to try to make the race about Nancy Pelosi, they're going to try to make the race about Barack Obama- they're going to do whatever they can to make the race about anything other than Nancy Boyda's track record or about the Republicans, because, if they do allow the race to be about the job Boyda has done, or about the miserable job the Republicans have done, they know they'll be destined for yet another lose in a "Republican" district.
It didn't work there, and it won't work here.
A third loss in Tuesday’s 1st District special election would prompt new predictions of electoral doom in November, hurt the party’s already flagging morale and usher in a new round of public finger-pointing among an already fractured GOP. Politico.comWith good reason- they're heading toward yet another election year like they had in 2006.
The Mississippi First is a district 4 points MORE Republican than Nancy Boyda's. This wasn't in Boston, kids, this was in rural Mississippi. And rural Louisiana. And rural Illinois.
Our hunch is- rural Kansas is going to be more of the same.