Thursday, October 30, 2008

NRCC Tries to Save Jenkins: $335K of TV purchased

To anyone watching the race for Congress in the 2nd district of Kansas it's pretty obvious Lynn Jenkins is struggling to just hold on, with the whole "didn't do her job for months so she could campaign" thing, and then the "misallocating tens of millions of dollars all over the state that has caused tax increases in poor counties that might have been avoided had she been doing her job" thing. Oh, also, she's running against Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, who happens to be a pretty dang good fit for her district.

In the face of such hurdles, both of her own making and not, Jenkins has had to do the only thing trailing politicians can do: She has gone hard negative, out-and-out lying to voters about Boyda's record and trying desperately to distract them from the real positive work Boyda has done on their behalf.

The strategy is clear- if voters already think Jenkins negatively, just make them think of Boyda more negatively and, heck, you've got yourself an upset.

In that vain, the National Republican Campaign Committee, the NRCC, made a huge advertising buy in the district- almost $335,000.

Just like the Jenkins campaign, the NRCC buy is upsetting for one reason: It misrepresents Boyda's record by- again- claiming Boyda voted for the largest tax increase in American history. We all know that claim is bogus, and that the vote they're trying it to was for something non-binding that didn't increase taxes on anybody. Still, the Republicans push it, ignoring anything real that might help the people of Kansas, and what we should be talking about gets shoved off to the side.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already spent a couple hundred thousand dollars trumpeting Boyda's successes in her term (hmmm...someone else does that, too), and we expect they'll expand that buy- if there is any TV time left for them to purchase. Key difference between the DCCC ad and the NRCC ad- the DCCC is positive and record-oriented while the NRCC ad...isn't.

That brings us to a key indicator for what's really happening in this race: You dont' waste time on positive pieces if you think you're losing, folk, and you don't go hard negative if you think you're in the lead.

Five more days, folk, and we'll see what the district does. With both campaigns and the DCCC and the NRCC bashing each other about the head and neck, damage most certainly will be inflicted. We'll just have to see who's been hurt the worst.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why the NRCC is spending money in this district I don't really know- they can't be assuming Boyda's actually in that much trouble, but maybe they think they've got a shot because of the cash-on-hand figures.

Anonymous said...

I agree it's strange to see the NRCC spend this kind of money at this point- if Boyda was in trouble, the DCCC would be hitting Jenkins for something, but they aren't.

all very odd.

Anonymous said...

You all are idiots. The race is close, they have both run polls and probably not released them. I would bet that since the DCCC has just jumped back into the race and the NRCC has been planning to spend this money all along that the DCCC is worried that Boyda's campaign has not be run the best that it could. ie news paper inserts can beat a candidate that everyone hates (Jim Ryun) but it take a little more substance to beat an unknown.

Anonymous said...

Hey dumbass....if you would read the inserts and otherwise pay a little more attention to things other than the Trunkline you would find the substance right in your face.

Anonymous said...

"it take a little more substance to beat an unknown."

no, it takes nothing at all to beat an unknown...because people don't vote for unknowns.

if boyda was in trouble, the DCCC would be hammering away at Jenkins- they aren't. the NRCC sees jenkins with fundraising momentum- so they're in helping her.

if jenkins has a poll showing her winning she would scream it at the top of her lungs.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that you mention this...check out what the most recent polling on this race says:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/house/ks/kansas_2nd_district-987.html

GOP lean...wow...all that you have left to do is introduce your foot to your mouth

Anonymous said...

Cook Political says it leans D
Rothenberg says it leans D

those ratings are from October, that poll was from, when, August?

Anonymous said...

are you seriously quoting a poll that showed boyda up by 7 as evidence jenkins will win?

also- if you look at the rating chart on RCP, they list the race as a toss up.

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This blog is not affiliated in any way with the Kansas Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, the Office of Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, or the campaign to re-elected Congresswoman Nancy Boyda. All commentary herein not directly attributed must be considered the opinion of the authors of this blog and not of any other individual, including Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.