Something is certain in the Kansas 2nd, regardless of how much faith you put in DC talking heads: The race for the seat currently held by Congresswoman Nancy Boyda is going to be hard fought- and, quite possibly, the hottest congressional race in the country.
We say that, but we thought it would be nice to back it up with some context for you. We love context...and links...links are awesome in blogs.
So, today, we thought we'd give you a quick rundown of how those pundits perceive the KS-02 right now, and then tell you why that makes sure that much more optimisic as we get closer and closer to election day (180 days...).
- CQ Politics: No Clear Favorite
- Swing State Project: Lean Democratic
- Roll Call: Tossup
- Rothenberg Political Report: Pure Tossup
- Cook Political Report: Leans Democratic
- Larry J. Sabato: Leans Democratic
- DC's Political Report: 5 Star Democratic Retention
That's fine, of course, but it certainly doesn't point to anything even approaching a likely lose. No, if anyone thought that was going to be the case, they'd classify this seat as a "Leans Republican" or even a "Likely Republican." But no one does- ever- and they haven't in the nearly year and a half Boyda has been in office.
That in itself is an amazing turn of events- in just two years this seat went from "Solid Republican" to "Leans Democratic." Thanks in large part to the ineptness of the Kansas Republican Party leadership, of course, and to a gentleman named Jim Ryun. Oh, and of course to our current Congresswoman's ability to connect with her district in away they haven't felt since Jim Slattery represented them in the Eighties.
So, take it or leave it that's where the national pundits put this race as of today. Our guess it will only look better and better for Boyda as the Republican primary takes to the TVs districtwide.
But when 26% of Republicans say they'd rather vote Boyda than one of her Republican counterparts, you know things are getting better in Kansas.
12 comments:
Jenkins wins primary, Jenkins wins general. Ryun wins primary, Boyda wins general. It's that simple. Most DC types think Ryun will likely win the primary, thus "leans Dem".
Jenkins is looking at getting crushed in the primary. Word is that she and her camp were hoping the push poll from a few weeks ago would show the race in a dead heat and the 16% margin for Ryun surprised them. I would doubt that she's getting out of the race, though.
BTW, great talking point for Boyda's camp. Nancy Boyda=Jim Slattery.
jenkins is a push over regardless of who she's running against. Boyda's going to keep this seat (however awful that might be...)
for the most part, the talking heads recognize Boyda's a good fit for her district...people like Jim Ryun stick out like sore thumbs in districts carried by people like Kathleen Sebelius
yeah .... and if you believe polls or political pundits earlier ... John McCain was never going to be the Republican nominee .... and Obama had no chance against Hillary
and in 2006 no one thought boyda had a chance in hell.
that's all true...but what on earth has happened nationally or locally that would say a republican is going to win the seat back? while boyda hasn't been great, and while partisan republicans don't like her, they never did....the average voters only knows she's home a lot and has been in their senior center 15 times since she was sworn in. that's enough to keep her in office.
Thats great considering 90% of seniors never go to a senior center..... great place to reach them
Thats great considering 90% of seniors never go to a senior center..... great place to reach them
wow, stupid, you know that person was talking about Congress on Your Corner, which has, indeed, been in senior centers, and not actually outreach to seniors, right?
no, obviously not.
wow .... someone's panties are in a bit of a bind
stupid people are annoying
Yes, you are definately annoying
ok, children, back yourselves up off the blog.
mommy & daddy shouldn't let you comment anyway.
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