Thursday, October 30, 2008

Rundown of the Ratings: KS-02

Because someone was silly today and tried to comment something saying this race was something other than a toss up or leaning toward Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, we wanted to give you all nice clickable links to every single major race ranking list so you can see for yourselves what the political professionals think is going on in the 2nd District of Kansas:

  • Charlie Cook- The Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic (Oct. 30)
  • Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball '08: Democratic Hold (Oct. 30)
  • National Journal: Not in the top 55 most competitive seats (the KS-02 was 44rd last week) (Oct. 30)
  • Stu Rothenberg- The Rothenberg Political Report: Toss Up/ Tilt Democratic (Oct. 29)
  • Swing State Project: Lean D (Oct. 29)
  • Washington Post: 43rd Most Likely Seat to Switch Party (Oct. 24)
  • RealClearPolitics: Toss Up or Leans GOP (depending on where you look on the site); 19th Most Likely Seat to Switch Party (Last update unknown)
  • CQ Politics: No Clear Favorite (Last update unknown)
So, there you go- how all of the big national folk think this race is shaking out. It's obviously tight- a race for a Democrat in an R+7 will always be- but it's clear most agree with our assesment: Lynn Jenkins simply hasn't convinced the voters of the Kansas 2nd Nancy Boyda's been a bad representative, and Jenkins and the conservative third party groups would have been wise to keep their outlandish claims about "the largest tax increase in history" in their hats.


Anonymous said...

Jim Ryun had a poll showing him up by 20 points and he still lost to Jenkins. This is going to be closer than many dems think and the district could easily go to an R. One thing is for sure, if Boyda wins she will go left in her 2nd term and she'll support Obama and Pelosi most, if not all the time. If Boyda wins this time, she'll loose in 10. She can't keep the charade up forever.

Anonymous said...

The Cook Journal is run by Charlie Cook who happens to be a former Democrat Consultant, a former Democrat Policy Committee member, a former Democrat Senatorial Committee member, and a former Union lobbyist.

Larry Sabato spent most of his career working for Democrat Henry Howell...not to mention he was the individual who lied about reporting he heard George Allen make racist remarks. He later admitted to the lie.

The Swing State Project is sponsored by the Daily Kos blogsite, the kingpin of liberal blogs.

Those are the only pollsters that have this race as a Dem Lean.

Boyda is in serious trouble and you all know it...

Anonymous said...

Anon #1. The same was said about Dennis Moore in 2000. And 2002. And 2004. And 2006. And 2008. With Monday's Survey USA results in KS03, it appears as though they'll all be wrong...again.

Anonymous said...

Hey morons, polling companies don't get payed to pump sunshine up people's asses, they get paid to deliver accurate numbers. If their numbers were inaccurate, no one would avail themselves of their services.

Anonymous said...

Now who's being naive here...people pay other people to tell them what they want to hear all the time.

And it happens in politics more than any other profession.

Anonymous said...

if polls are bad, they companies who do them go out of business. if predictions are bad, the people who make them stop being listened to- Cook & Sabato will lose credibility if they aren't fair.

notice you left off Rothenberg from your critique- that's because Stu Rotehnberg is NOT a liberal in any sense of the word.

no, no, this race isn't going to be a landslide for Boyda, but the idea the people of the district are just going to overlook Jenkins' falures in her current office is laughable.

Anonymous said...

Rothenberg has the race a toss-up maybe that is why it was left off the list.

Boyda's tax and spend big government approach is her big mistake and is going to cost her...not to mention she votes with Pelosi 93% of the time and Obama 83% of the time.

Not exactly the moderate she protrays herself to be, but she has a history of lieing to the people of the 2nd district.

Energy policy

The list goes on and on

Anonymous said...

Wow looks like I nailed it.

5% point victory
15,000 votes
Democrat pollsters missed the boat

Jenkins raised more money, maintained a consistent theme for her campaign (did Boyda even have one), worked the base harder and walked away with a solid margin of victory in a HIGHLY Democratic year.

Does anyone else have anything to say?

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This blog is not affiliated in any way with the Kansas Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee, Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, the Office of Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, or the campaign to re-elected Congresswoman Nancy Boyda. All commentary herein not directly attributed must be considered the opinion of the authors of this blog and not of any other individual, including Congresswoman Nancy Boyda.