Thursday, June 19, 2008

BREAKING: Boyda Polling in the Lead

Just as the Republican Primary campaign bursts on to the stage, all of us watching the race in the Kansas 2nd Congressional District got a very, very unexpected surprised today that throws the conventional wisdom about this race right out the window.

Results of a poll conducted in the Kansas 2nd District in May by Anzalone Liszt Research, Inc. shows truly shocking numbers- and proves Congresswoman Nancy Boyda isn't quite as weak as previously thought.

Here they are as they were sent to us:



How would you rate the job that Nancy Boyda is doing as U.S. Congresswoman?


Total Positive- 68% (!!)
Total Negative- 21%
Don't Know- 10%
68% approval for a Democrat in eastern Kansas! That's currently better than either United States Senator or Governor Kathleen Sebelius!
Will you re-elect Nancy Boyda, or support someone new?

Re-elect- 54%
Someone new- 35%
Don't Know- 11%
That's what a year of hard work gives you- 54% want to re-elect Boyda in this R+7 district.
Nancy Boyda vs. Jim Ryun

Nancy Boyda- 54%
Jim Ryun- 37%
Undecided- 9%
After 10 years, the KS-2 has had enough of Jim Ryun!
Nancy Boyda vs. Lynn Jenkins

Nancy Boyda- 57%
Lynn Jenkins- 27%
Undecided- 15%
So much for the logic Lynn Jenkins is the stronger candidate against Boyda.
Lynn Jenkins vs. Jim Ryun

Lynn Jenkins- 35%
Jim Ryun- 49%
Undecided- 16%

(Link to the polling report as it was emailed to us)
Instant reactions: All the Republican posturing about how poor a fit Boyda is for her district is patently false- it's obvious the people of the Kansas 2nd Congressional district think Boyda is doing an exceptional job if 68% of people are giving her good or excellent marks.

Also, so far at least, the people of the district have no interest in trading out Boyda for the messages being peddled by either Ryun or Jenkins- and it looks like Jenkins still has a long way to go if she has any hope in the world of beating Ryun in the primary.

The only other thing- while this poll is good news for Nancy Boyda right now, all this new information means is, in the end, the fight is going to be even harder. Why? Because Ryun & Jenkins both know Boyda's winning, too, and they'll redouble their efforts to knock her out of her seat. Even though this polling shows Boyda's as strong as we had all hoped, this means the Republicans will pull out ever stop in an attempt to beat her.

She needs your help. Sign up to volunteer and, please, make a contribution of $10, $25, or $50- she's going to need it to stay in the lead.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

HOLY SHIT!

Anonymous said...

oh you republicans are soooo screwed!!

Anonymous said...

Anzalone Liszt Research
A full-service Democratic polling and public opinion research firm from partners John Anzalone and Jeffrey Liszt.

Bravo. Very independent pollsters.

Anonymous said...

How funny - Boyda's numbers show that she is winning, yet all of DC still thinks she is going to lose her seat.

Priceless.

Anonymous said...

Hey dumbass, BB links to the questions asked in the poll. It's not a push-poll, its a very clean straight up or down poll. No bias whatsoever. Unless somehow this polling firm's personal political feelings affected their sampling, which I HIGHLY doubt, there's no bias.

Anonymous said...

Not bad, but a few things to note.
The numbers posted only have Boyda at a 54% re-elect. Those are not good numbers. When the election season begins in earnest, a few campaign commercials push that below 50%. Any incumbent hovering near 50% before the election season really begins should be a little nervous, esp. during a Presidential year.
Also, this poll only has Obama losing in the 2nd District by 7% versus Rasmussen's 21% (an independent pollster, btw). Let's see the sample of the party registrations that were polled before we jump to conclusions. If the poll is legit, you publish those numbers.
In other words, I'd take these numbers with a grain of salt.

Anonymous said...

Assuming that a polling sample isn't biased is about the most naive assumption one could make. That's only the oldest trick in the book for skewing poll numbers.

Anonymous said...

This same firm did the polling in the
Mississippi Special and the Louisiana special that the Democrats just won- predicting nearly exactly what the results would be.

it's probably the best polling we've seen in this race yet.

Anonymous said...

54% isn't good? that's a fucking landslide for a Kansas Democrat

(what did Sebelius get her first term?)

and...notice...this puts Nancy Boyda's approval rating HIGHER than Kathleen Sebelius

Anonymous said...

take Rasmussen's numbers with a grain of salt- they always lean toward the right.

This firm is a campaign polling firm- they have no business if they give people results that are bad or biased.

Kevin in Tallahassee said...

I just saw your FISA "Damn Lies" speech on YouTube, Rep. Boyda. It was great! Democratic invertebrates in the House should look to you for leadership on this issue.

The good people of KS-02 are very lucky to have you. Keep fighting the good fight!

Oh, and if you ever get tired of Kansas, we can sure use you in Florida!

Best of luck!

Anonymous said...

I agree with Kevin; you're a good speaker and could teach the other congressional democrats a thing or two about spine.

I disagree with you on FISA (I think the original law is as viciously unconstitutional as the latest revision), but we're still lucky to have you in the House.

Anonymous said...

the poll is amazing news, and your strong stand on FISA is amazing, too!

Anonymous said...

Sorry but I doubt FISA is going to be the issue on people's minds in the 2nd District.

I think the campaign promises of Democrats is going to come back to haunt them ..... like if elected we will get out troops out of Iraq.

I believe the economy, food, and gas prices will be a prominent issues .... and what have Democrats done to address those issues ....where is their comprehensive energy plan; their economic ideas ..... anything to address food prices other than governement programs

Anonymous said...

If you look more in-depth at the poll only 27% said they would definately vote to re-elect Boyda. Another 27% is probably ..... but not definately. Means only 27% of those polled would definately vote to re-elect Boyda. I am not sure that is good news as is being sold here.

Anonymous said...

then you've obviously never read a poll, ever.

Anonymous said...

i have read plenty of polls ..... i look at what they actually say not try to twist it to favor whomever i support.

oh and so much for that FISA speech. Boyda voted to support the bill today.

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