The American Conservative: Boyda May be Safe

A few days ago we linked to a piece written for The American Conservative- and, like we said then, that isn't a periodical we would normally ever...ever...read. But, again, they have brought us gold that we, in turn, are bringing to you.

Kansas’ 2nd District may be turning into a safe seat for the Democrats, according to this result. Generic approval for Congress is an abysmal 12% these days, but the personal job approval ratings for new Democratic incumbents appear to be very good, and we all know that the generic Congressional ballot is overwhelmingly pro-Democratic. As far as Nancy Boyda is concerned, there does not seem to be voter’s remorse over her 2006 election, which supports my earlier guess that her seat was not as vulnerable as the race rankings suggest that it is. Pretty clearly, contrary to what I was saying earlier this month, her endorsement of Obama has had no meaningful effect on support for her in the district.

Which, of course, we said at the time.

KS-02 ought to be one of the GOP’s best chances to retake a seat lost in the midterms, and that possibility seems more remote by the day. Things may change once the Republicans settle on a nominee, but there is no reason right now to think that a Boyda-Ryun rematch would yield a different result.

We're as buoyed by these polling results as this poor conservative is dejected by them, but, as realists, we know perfectly well these numbers will move a great deal after the Republicans start pummeling Congresswoman Boyda with negative TV. But, at this point, this is just another "Republican seat" slipping out of the grasp of the Republican Party. We can't forget they'll fight dirty to prevent that from happening.